Fractional Growth Factors Free Essays

string(99) " Write an equation for the rabbit population p for any year n after the rabbits are first counted\." Early Field Experience Lesson Plan Fractional Growth Factor CMP Math 8th Grade Ms. Tanisha Wilson Fifer Middle School Tanisha Wilson MTSC 403 Fall 2011 CONTEXTUAL FACTORS Student Characteristics There 28 students and they are in 8th grade CMP math class. There are some students in this are inclusion so there are two teachers in the classroom. We will write a custom essay sample on Fractional Growth Factors or any similar topic only for you Order Now There is a regular mathematics education teacher, and there is a special aid teacher. The students in this class have to take two mathematics classes each day, a CMT course and a prep course which will help them score high on their DCAS scores. They are from different nationality backgrounds and they understand English well. There is one student in the class who has a wheel chair and the desk is arranged for him to sit comfortably by the door. Overall the students in this class are well behaved and eager to learn mathematics. Grouping Patterns Student’s seats are arranged in groups of four. Students will work in groups of four and a class as a whole will whole. Prerequisite Knowledge Students should already be able to identify the growth factor in the problem with reasoning, the y- intercept, and what everything number in the equation represent. Students are also expected to know what exponential growth mean and are able to graph and factor with exponential growth with whole numbers. Instructional Materials Smart board, smart responders, paper, pencil LEARNING GOALS Mathematical Learning Goals Students will build on their knowledge of exponential growth. Students will think about exponential growth with the fractional (or decimal) growth factors and know when it is appropriate to round the number to the nearest decimal place and why. Students will know how to find the fractional exponential growth using the formula P= a (b)x. NCTM Content Standards Grades 6-8 Algebra * Identify functions as linear or nonlinear and contrast their properties from tables, graphs, or equations. * Model and solve contextualized problems using various representations such as graphs, tables and equations. Delaware Standards Math GLE Standard 2 Algebraic Reasoning * Compare the rates of change in tables and graphs and classify them as linear or nonlinear. * Use tables, graphs and symbolic reasoning to identify functions as linear or nonlinear. DIRECT Diversity- there will be different ways to solve the problems so students would be given many ways to practice and choose which method fits best. Interpersonal Communications- students will follow a method that the teacher in the class uses which is called Think, pair, share. Students would think about their answer, pair up with their group members to discuss what each other got, and then share their answer with the whole class. Reflection- students would reflect on what is going on in the class by exit cards at the end of the lesson. Students will also receive extra practice by doing a homework assignment. Effect teaching and assessment Strategies- students would be asked questions leading to them figuring out the formula. At the end of the lesson there would be exit cards to assess what the students have learned in today’s lesson. Content and Pedagogical Knowledge- this is like a review lesson. Students already have prerequisite knowledge on the same material. The only difference with this lesson is that the growth factors for the problems we will be working on today are fractional. Technology- students would use smart responders in the beginning of the lesson to determine if their answers were correct or not. We will also be using the smart board to see the problems needed in order to keep the lessons going. Mathematical Proficiency Strands Understanding mathematics- student’s will be asked multiple questions based off of the problems they have done in previous lessons and the lessons we are doing today so I could know if the students are understanding the mathematics we are covering the in class. Applying concepts to solve problems- students would be given two solve problems and asked how they came up with their answer with explanations of how they got the answer. Reasoning logically- students would be given a real life situation as a solve problem and the answer they come up with have to logically fit the situation given in the story. Engaging- students will be engaging with each other to discuss their thoughts of the solve problems by doing the think, pair, share. Assessment Plan In the previous investigation, we studied exponential growth of plants, mold, and a snake population. In the growth factor and the starting value, we could make predictions. The growth factors in these examples were whole numbers. In this investigation, we will study examples of exponential growth with fractional growth factors. Students will have an understanding on how to find the exponential growth of a Rabbit population with fractional growth factors. Examples will be shown that students understand the lesson by using the growth factor table, being able to determine what is the growth factor and when is it appropriate to round it up to if necessary and students will be able to connect the chart and table to a formula for the exponential growth rate. Pre- Assessment Students will be given a chart that looks like the previous charts we have went over. The difference with this chart is that the growth factor is not a whole number. Students will have to find the equation based off of the chart. They would put their answer into the smart responder. Once everyone’s answers are calculated into the smart responder, we will receive a percentage of how many students got the correct answer in the class. We will then discuss why that is the correct answer. Additional Assessment 1 Students would be given a problem on the smart board with a table which will represent the exponential growth of rabbits. Ask students the following questions†¦ 1. What is the growth factor? Explain how you found your answer. 2. Assume this growth pattern continued. Write an equation for the rabbit population p for any year n after the rabbits are first counted. You read "Fractional Growth Factors" in category "Papers" Explain what the numbers in your equation represent. 3. How many rabbits will there be after 10 years? How many will there be after 25 years? After 50 years? 4. In how many years will the rabbit population exceed one million? Do not give students the answers. Have students come up with the answers on their own, then they could discuss with a classmate, then the whole class would discuss the correct answer and why. While students are working in groups, the teacher would be walking around and looking at student’s notes to see their understanding. If you see that there is more than one approach to the answer, then call on the different students with the different approaches so there could be variety. Post Assessment The class would sum up what we did in today’s lesson by answering the exit cards with a question similar to the one we did in class. Students must answer the question in details. The teacher will explain to the students that the main point of the lesson today is to recognize that the growth factor may not always be a whole number. By the end of this lesson, students should be able to solve a problem dealing with exponential growth with the growth factor not being a whole number. OPENING 5 Minutes8:00-8:15 Rationale Students will be shown a chart on the smart board and will be asked to find the growth factor and the equation for the table. Since the students are already familiar with exponential growth using whole numbers, I want student’s to see that not all exponential growth would have a whole number as the growth factor. The opening activity is a reflection on the same type of formula they have been working on, the only difference is that the growth f actor would not be a whole number. Students would focus on the growth factor and being able to put it into an equation which will support the table. Students will be assessed by using the smart responders. The smart responders will allow the teacher to know the percentage of students who got the correct answer before beginning the lesson. | Materials Smart board, smart responder, pencil, and paper Activity Description When the students first walk into the classroom, they will be asked to grab a smart responder. (The smart responder allows the teacher to see the percentage of how many students got the correct answer). Based off of the results on the smart responder I will have a short discussion of what is the growth factor, the y-intercept, and why important to know those numbers in order to create a formula. The table is as followed†¦ X| 0| 1| 2| 3| Y| 30| 57| 108| 206| Differentiate Instruction One student from each group will get up to get the smart responders for their group and return them when we are done. Students will be able to do this because there is a student in the classroom with a disability; he is in a wheelchair so I do not want him to feel left out in any way. Therefore, each group will have to go through the same procedure. Another differentiate instruction we will do is go over the correct answer into details because there are some students in the class who are inclusion. I do not want to move too fast with the class as a whole so I will continue to review the material and monitor ALL students understanding of the lesson before moving on. What is the growth factor in this table? Possible Student Responses| Possible Teacher Follow-ups| 1. 9| Did everyone get that answer? | No. | What did you get as the growth factor? | At first I got1. then I divided the next two consecutive numbers which is 108/ 57 and I got 1. 894736834, so the growth factor is not the same with each number. | Did anyone else get that? | Yes| Well I’m happy you pointed that out. What is the difference between this table and the previous tables we have been doing these past few weeks? | The growth factor is not the same for every outcome is not the same exact numb er| What is different about the numbers though? | They are a decimal and not whole numbers. | Ok. Good point. Is 1. 894736 close to 1. 9? | Yes| When you divide 206 and 108, what is your outcome? 1. 907407| Is that close to 1. 9? | Yes| So what could you tell me about this growth factor now? | That the outcomes are very close to each other but they are not the exact same| So imaging if you wanted to round your growth factor to the nearest whole number, put the number 2 into your formula, what are your results? | 30*2= 6060*2= 120120*2= 240| Are your results accurate compared to what we need on our table? | No. | Why is that? | Because when you keep multiplying by 2 instead of 1. 9 the result grows bigger and bigger and it does not match what we need. What do you suggest we do if we wanted to put these numbers into an equation that will have the closest possible outcome? | Round it to 1. 9? | Why 1. 9? | Because what was the first exact outcome and when we divined the next consecutiv e numbers, they are close to 1. 9| Ok great job. So when this happens we will round up to the nearest outcome and in this case it is 1. 9| BODY #1 30 MinutesTime: 8:15- 8:45 Rationale The purpose of this activity is for students’ to have a visual with a story of rabbits reproducing and is able to form an equation with the table given to them. This activity will build on the students’ knowledge of exponential growth and at the same time introducing with fractional growth factors. It is important for students to understand that the growth factor will not always be a whole number and what they should do when they face this problem. This activity develops the learning goal of student’s being able to think about fractional growth factor and why should they round it to the nearest decimal place instead of the whole number. Materials Graphic Calculator, pencil, paper, smart board Activity Description Students will be sitting in groups of four. During this activity, student’s will do a think, pair, share for every question asked to them before discussing it with the class as a whole. Think, pair, share is a way for students to actually THINK about their answer and why do they think that will be the correct answer; they should also be taking down notes at this point. PAIR is when they talk amongst their partners and share what they came up with and then compare answers. If anyone answer is different, then they will discuss why are their answers different. SHARE is when the whole class has a discussion about all of the possible answers and come to an agreement and understanding of the correct answer. Students will be assessed while doing think, pair, and share. The teacher would be walking around the class taking notes about the student’s understanding and mentioning anything that stands out or may be confusing about the lesson to the class. This will just be personal notes for the teacher to know the student understands of the lesson. | The activity will begin with the â€Å"did you know† which will be shown on the smart board. Did you know? In 1859, a small number of rabbits were introduced to Australia by English settlers. The rabbits had no natural predators in Australia, so they reproduced rapidly and became a serious problem, eating grasses intended for sheep and cattle. In the mid-1990s, there were more than 300 million rabbits in Australia. The damage they caused cost Australian agriculture $600 million per year. There have been many attempts to curb Australia’s rabbit population. In 1995, a deadly rabbit disease was deliberately spread, reducing the rabbit population by about half. However, because rabbits are developing immunity to the disease, the effects of this measure may not last. Students will think about the â€Å"did you know† problem and then a table will be shown on the board based off of the problem. If biologists had counted the rabbits in Australia in the years after they were introduced, they might have collected data like these: Growth of Rabbit Population Time (yr)| Population| 0| 100| 1| 180| 2| 325| 3| 583| 4| 1,050| Students would be asked the following questions followed by a mini class discussion for each question. 1. What is the growth factor? Explain how you found your answer. 2. Assume this growth pattern continued. Write an equation for the rabbit population p for any year n after the rabbits are first counted. Explain what the numbers in your equation represent. 3. How many rabbits will there be after 10 years? How many will there be after 25 years? After 50 years? 4. In how many years will the rabbit population exceed one million? Differentiate Instruction There are some students in this class who are inclusion which mean that they need extra help with understand the concept of the material. There is an inclusion math teacher in the classroom as well but her attention is strictly for those students’. The activity has question and answers so that way everyone in the class could participate in lesson and contribute their understandings. Students will also have to think about the answer on their own at first before working in pairs which will be helpful for the teacher who is walking around to see the students understanding individually. The inclusion student’s will also receive peer help along with teacher sponsoring. What is the growth factor of rabbits reproducing represented by this table? Possible Student Responses| Possible Teacher Follow-ups| 1. 8| Why 1. 8? | Because divided the first two consecutive numbers which is 180/100= 1. 8 so every year the rabbits times itself to 1. 8| So did you get 1. 8 every time you divide the consecutive numbers? | No, when I divided 325 by 180 I got 1. 805555556, when I divided 583 by 325 I got 1. 793846, and when I divided 1,050 by 583, I got 1. 801029. They were all close to 1. 8 so I rounded it up like what we did for the warm up. | Great job, my only question is why did we round it up by 1. 8 and not 2? Because we are dealing with fractional growth factors even though these are decimals. | But what if you didn’t know you was dealing with fractional growth factors and you had to solve this problem, why wouldn’t you round your growth factor up to the nearest whole number? | Because if I rounded my growth factor up to the nearest whole number then the result for the growth amount for populations of rabbits of the next year would not be around the number given. | I don’t really understand what you mean; may you please demonstrate to the class using your calculator? | The student would demonstrate to the class using his/ her calculator Year 1100*2=200not close to 180 Year 2200*2=400not close to 325 Year 3400*2=800not close to 583 Year 4800*2=1600not close to 1050 So why do we round to the nearest appropriate decimal? Possible Student Responses| Possible Teacher Follow-ups| Because if we were to round it to the nearest whole number, then the growth factor will not be close to the next years population rate. | Correct. What is the equation used for this growth factor? | 100(1. 8x)| Why? | Growth factor is 1. 8 and we raise that by time which is x| Ok great job. | CLOSINGTime: 2 minutes Learning Goal(s) Students will build on their knowledge of exponential growth. Students will think about exponential growth with the fractional growth factors and know when it is appropriate to round the number to the nearest decimal place and why. Students will know how to find the fractional exponential growth using the formula P= a (b)x. Review Based off of what we learned today students will be able to draw connections from the previous lessons with exponential growth factors and now know how to find the exponential growth with the growth factor not being a whole number. Students are to state why they are rounding up the number to the nearest decimal (if needed). Students will have to answer the Exit Cards before leaving the class. 1. Why isn’t the growth factor of exponential growth always a whole number? 2. If you were to round up your decimal or fraction to the nearest whole number and put it into the equation P= a(b)x, what will your outcome be and explain why. Students would be assessed on their understanding of today’s lesson and making sure that they meet the learning goals thinking mathematically. | Follow-up Activities Students will be assigned a homework assignment. 1. In parts of the United States, wolves are being reintroduced to wilderness areas where they had become extinct. Suppose 20 wolves are released in northern Michigan, and the yearly growth factor for this population is expected to be 1. 2. a. Make a table showing the projected number of wolves at the end of each of the first 6 years. b. Write an equation that models the growth of the wolf population. c. How long will it take for the new wolf population to exceed 100? 2. a. The table shows that the elk population in a state forest is growing exponentially. What is the growth factor? Explain. Growth of Elk Population Time (year)| Population| 0| 30| 1| 57| 2| 108| 3| 206| 4| 391| 5| 743| b. Suppose this growth pattern continues. How many elk will there be after 10 years? How many elk will there be after 15 years? c. Write an equation you could use to predict the elk population p for any year n after the elk were first counted. d. In how many years will the population exceed one million? Homework will be checked during the next class meet. ATTACHMENTS â€Å"Growing Growing Growing† book pages 33-36 How to cite Fractional Growth Factors, Papers

Foundation of a Bible Based Christ-Free-Samples for Students

Question: Discuss about the Foundation of a bible based Christ centered worldview. Answer: Describe: Different perceptions on the existence of God by people. According to Bible, Jesus acts as a God for Christian individuals. Analyze: George Buttrick asks his students about what kind of God they believe in. People have different images of God in their minds such as some of them think of God as a cosmic cop whose major goal is to keep a track of people who are doing wrong and punish them. If they do not follow his rules he is always ready to show anger and slap them. But the God of Bible is totally different from this and he is patients enough and acts as a nurturing mother who is always ready to provide love and care to his children. He acts as friend and does not punish us for all the mistakes we make. Some people portray god as a Santa Claus who keeps smiling as a grandfather and provides us each and everything we want. He is always ready to provide love and care by patting on our heads. Some people also portray God as tyrannical ruler and it is very difficult for him to please. He does not serve people but wants human beings to serve him in a proper manner (White, 1998). But the God of Christianity is totally different from him. According to Bible, when we want to have a relationship with God, he or she is treated as his family member. He acts as a father who helps his children in every possible manner and does not treat us as a slave. He provides special care and affection to them. So, everyone must not get scared of God and act as slaves but should act as his children and respect him as a Father. Some people portray God as big and a powerful man. But he is not a human being according to Bible but a spirit who is omnipresent, not visible by anyone and immortal. He is not made of skin and does not contain blood in himself. The God of Bible is perfect and does not lack anything. He can be trusted by human beings in every possible manner. There are a few people who portray God as a strong force and believe that he is present in everything. But according to Bible, God is not present everywhere and he is only a spirit and has invented human beings and the earth. The real god is Jesus in and he plays a significant role in Christian religion. Personal Reflection: I think that I have gained knowledge about the existence of God according to the Bible, which is the holy book in Christianity. Before, I had a perception that God is present everywhere but know I have developed an understanding that he is a spirit and we should not be scared of him. He acts as a Father, a mother and loves us as his own children. He is immortal and invisible. I am deciding to follow the principles of Bible and Jesus. Reference White, J.E. (1998). A Search for the Spiritual: Exploring Real Christianity. Baker Books: Grand Rapids. Pp. 35-42.

A Tongue-Twisting Language Arts Lesson Plan

A Tongue-Twisting Language Arts Lesson Plan Peter Piper Picked a Peck of Pickled Peppers! She Sells Seashells by the Seashore! Toy Boat! Toy Boat! Toy Boat! Try saying these words several times quickly and youll see why tongue twisters can be a totally terrific part of your Language Arts curriculum. Not only are they silly, but these funny phrases focus on phonics, parts of speech, oral language, alliteration, reading, writing, and more. First, pique the childrens interest by introducing them to some of the more well-known tongue twisters. Challenge the children to say each phrase five times fast. Toy Boat is a great one because it sounds easy, but its actually quite difficult to repeat it fast. Try it yourself and see! Next, read a tongue-twisting book such as Twimericks, Dr. Seuss Oh Say Can You Say?, or Worlds Toughest Tongue Twisters. The kids will love watching you struggle through the tongue-tickling phrases from these books. You will probably have to stop every so often to give the kids a chance to practice the twisters. Its simply too irresistible to them if they have to wait. After the book, introduce the concept of alliteration. If you teach students in second grade or older, they will probably be able to handle this big word. In fact, it is a third grade academic standard in my district that all students know alliteration and begin to apply it in their writing. Alliteration simply means the repetition of the beginning sound in two or more words together. Younger students can build on the letter decoding skills included in tongue twisters by reading phonics poems in books such as the Phonics Through Poetry series. These poems are a little different than traditional tongue twisters, but they are a fun way to practice certain beginning sounds, rhymes, digraphs, and more. You may also want to discuss what makes these sentences and phrases so difficult to pronounce quickly. To build in writing practice, the students will have a blast building their own tongue twisters. To start, you can have the kids make four columns on their papers: one for adjectives, one for nouns, one for verbs, and one for other parts of speech. To determine the letter for their twisters, I usually just have them pick one of their initials. This gives them a little bit of free choice, but also ensures that you dont get 20 twisters of the same letter. After the children brainstorm approximately 10-15 words for each column that begin with their chosen letters, they can start putting together their twisters. I stipulate that they have to write complete sentences, not simple phrases. My students got so carried away that many of them asked if they could make more than one. I even had one child who made 12! To culminate the tongue twisting lesson, I have the kids write one twister on the bottom of a page and illustrate it above. These make a great project to post on a bulletin board because the children will love reading each others sentences and trying to say them five times fast. Give this tongue-twisting lesson a try and its sure to become one of your favorite lessons to teach each year. Yes, its a little silly and full of giggles, but at the end of the day, the kids really will have gained valuable language arts skills.

Geo

Geo Assignment #1 Pr ©cis of World Population Beyond Six Billion Throughout this century, the population has grown at a very fast pace. It is predicted that over the next century the population will continue to increase. Majority of the increase in the population will come from less developed regions. As the next century approaches, the population of the world will have different demographic trends. To find out what accounts for these differences, we must discover what causes the population to change. There are many factors linked to population change. These factors include economic growth or decline, public health, education, status of women and family services. The change in one of these factors may cause a change in another. As the population continues to grow there is a major concern about the rapid rate of growth and the large increase in population size.Before 1900 there was a great struggle for human survival.English: World Population by Continent and 10 Most...

The Use of Social Media by the Sports Organizations Assignment

The Use of Social Media by the Sports Organizations - Assignment Example Professional sports organizations include; need to curb corruption in sports organizations, dispute resolution between league members, and administration of punishment to players whose conduct become detrimental to the integrity of the game or league. The powers of the commissioner to administer punishment to offenders are granted under the â€Å"best interest† authority. There are several factors that are likely to influence organizational change in NFL that include; promising economy, social media, and internal policies. First, according to Sports Xchange (2015, p.6), NFL and its 32 teams recorded a total of $1.07 billion in sponsorship revenue; a 5.7% increase from the year 2012. The economy is expected to continue raising for the period of the next five years. Therefore, the organization of NFL will have to change to increase accountability of all officials in order to assure the sponsors of effective management of the financial resources. Secondly, NFL has been experiencing increasing influence of social media to determine public opinion on various decisions. For instance, fans are allowed to use the Twitter handles @NFL or @NFLCommish to express their feelings about any major decisions made by the League’s officials. This trend is likely to continue for the next five years hence forcing the organization to change how it makes its major d ecisions to avoid negative critics that might damage the reputation of the league. Thirdly, the Leagues internal policies have been changing over time. For instance, the personal-conduct policy has undergone through various changes hence forcing the commissioner to adapt to new ways of making judgments. This trend will force the Leagues organization to change within the next five years in order to accommodate the changing policies. However, the change might be refrained by the internal conflicts that are currently being faced in the League between Roger Goodell and other stakeholders.

Health information research project Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Health information research project - Essay Example The policy is that this information needs to be conveyed to the patient before the physician releases the medical information to the authorities maintaining the computer databases. This is because the patient’s informed permission needs to be obtained for treatment (Wilson 2009). For obtaining this, the patient has the right to get the complete information about where their records are being stored. Further, they have the right to know the persons and organizations that have access to their computerized medical databases (O’Caroll et al ed 2003). 3. The AMA’s policy is that the procedures for eradicating the computerized database of inaccurate data need to be established (www.ama-assn.org).This information of purging of inaccurate data needs to be notified to the patient before the purging of data and after the completion of purging. This policy has been adopted to give the patient a chance to get a printed copy of the computerized information before it is lost completely .Further they have the right to know that their records have been eradicated forever from the computer. 4. The AMA’S policy on confidentiality of computers is that the computerized database should be online to the computer terminal only when authorized computer programs that require the computerized data are being used (www.ama-assn.org). External individuals and organizations should not be provided online access to this data. Security measures like password protection, encoding of information etc are required to control unauthorized access to the medical data according to AMA’s policy. This is to prevent the unauthorized access by any external agent to a patient’s confidential medical data. The legal basis for this is the right of privacy derived from constitution (Wilson, 2009). 5. According to AMA’s policy, when a computer service bureau erases medical data, the bureau needs to verify in writing to the

Risk Management of Terminal Development at Airport

Risk Management of Terminal Development at Airport Dissertation Objectives Investigate the problems at the terminal 5 opening, especially with the baggage handling system despite extensive simulated testing using thousands of bags and more than two thousand volunteers in the run up to the opening of T5 Identify the necessary risk strategies to be considered for such mega-projects, the benefits of such approaches, taking into account previous failed and successful projects, and any lessons to be learnt Discuss the implementation approach adopted by BAA and the risk associated with this approach Provide formative evaluation summarising key findings and conclusion based on evidence gathered from research T5 Synopsis The terminal 5 project in addition to being a statement of intent for the future of British aviation was built with the aim of improving customer experience and to exhibit Heathrow as a world class international airport. The baggage handling system at T5 was designed to be the largest baggage handling system in Europe for a single terminal. The system consists of a main baggage sorter and a fast track system. The system was designed by an integrated team from BAA, BA and Vanderlande Industries of the Netherlands, with the aim of handling both intra-terminal and inter-terminal luggage. Its processing capacity was intended to be 70,000 bags a day. Bags are meant to undergo several processes on the way through the system, these include; automatic identification, explosives screening, fast tracking for urgent bags, sorting and automatic sorting and passenger reconciliation. The scheduled completion and opening date was March 2008, and T5 was on time and on budget. This was a remarkable achievement especially in a sector where project delays and vast overspends are commonplace (the Millennium dome, Wembley stadium and the Scottish Parliament buildings were all opened late and cost a lot more than the original estimate). However, on its first day in operation, T5s bespoke baggage system was affected by technical software problems, which led to a number of issues, such as cancelled flights, lost baggage, and substantial delays, but more importantly, BAs challenge were its people issues and integrating teams of staff. Initial reports suggest that the day one issues were less to do with technology issues and more to do with inadequate staff training, and this was not just for one group of people but at all levels. Below is a summary of its problems on the opening day: Hundreds of staff found it difficult finding the staff car park entrance Check-in staff struggled with their systems, these problems ranged from very simple tasks such as logging into the baggage system to complex tasks Security personnel who were totally ignorant of their new roles and had to be taken through new procedures in the morning in front of passengers Ground staff and crews and ground staff getting lost in the huge building Baggage handlers struggled to get a hang of the new baggage system Baggage truck drivers got lost within the terminal and needed directions to the aircraft Baggage drivers and handlers could not get luggage from the conveyors to the gates On nine occasions, inspectors from the department of transport had managed to bypass security checks during trials of the terminals new systems and that the terminals alarm system was not working properly Going through these problems therefore suggest that the entire problem was down to lack of adequate training or simply inappropriate appraisal of risk involved. This is very surprising as this was a very high profile project and taking into account that this was a simple 3 team process get baggage, take baggage to aircraft and load baggage onto aircraft. Training System Testing Prior to Opening Based on initial interviews with BAs CIO, it would suggest that the human elements were given the importance it required. BAs CIO, Paul Coby told CIO UK [in March 2007] â€Å"the IT work to support such a large-scale, new-build project was also going well. â€Å"Devices are deployed, connections are being integrated and 2007 will be testing year. The airline is moving onto the T5 systems, so they run for a year ready to operate at the new terminal when it opens in 2008†. According to XXXXX, in the run up to the opening of T5 there were a series of overnight baggage-systems tests using thousands of bags, up to 2000 volunteers and full trials of the check-in procedure for all the IT systems. According to the spokesman for Vanderlande Industries, in testing the baggage handling system, emulation models were utilized broadly to test the low-level controls software, while computer programs took the place of the baggage handling system, and which behave (almost) the same as the part they replace. The report also suggests that for the high-level controls software, the emulation model was broadened by connecting the loose individual models into a large integrated system in which the physical equipment was replaced by a number of interconnected emulation models. According to a number of the volunteers who tested the system prior to its opening commented that the demos were extremely impressive and felt the system was ready in advance of its opening. T5 System Simulation Prior to Opening According to the spokesman for Vanderlande Industries, low-level emulation models were utilized in place of the physical transport equipment in each of the conveyor lines. The low and high level models that were developed produced the same electrical outputs in response to the same electrical inputs as their corresponding physical equivalent (motors, photo-electric cells, barcode scanners, etc), which in the view of both the software developers and management of BA, proof of extensive system testing. System interaction was facilitated with the use of control panels, and with the right frequency, set of bags or multiple bags were generated. During the testing, the conveyor motors were stopped and started utilizing different scenarios in order to generate as much errors as possible with the hope of fixing them. The spokesman also stated that the transport time between two photocells in emulation was equal to the actual time using the real equipment. The same measurement also applied to the total transport time. In addition, during testing the T5 project, over 90 individual low-level emulation models were created as individual models were integrated into 5 different configurations. A separate team spent 4800 hours on building and testing these emulation models. Questions: Training Testing But the first set of questions now has to be asked: how adequate was the tests and training were carried out in relation to T5s baggage systems in advance of the opening? What were the results? What were the problems revealed? and what steps were taken to resolve the problems revealed? Were the tests re-run and, if so, what was the result? Was the right implementation strategy adopted? Or would it not have been better to open Terminal 5 on a phased basis, to make sure that all its systems were working before going fully operational? The second set of questions to be asked would be: knowing that extensive simulation testing was carried out on the baggage system successfully; doesnt that then suggest that carrying out simulated testing without the real customers is inadequate? With regards to the people issues, what sort of dry runs were carried out? If they were indeed adequate, why were the opening day hiccups not identified? Where there extra staff or volunteers in anticipation of potential glitches? If yes were these trained adequately? For every eventuality or possible scenario, what were the contingency plans? In spite of the extensive testing carried out on the baggage system and the confidence which this would have placed on top management, from the experience on the opening day, we can conclude that in reality, the prospects of operating an airport terminal of such magnitude and scale would require more than simulated testing as the operations are virtually impossible to fully replicate. This then suggests that the risk management utilized by the BA was not robust to take the people issues into account. Good risk management might have come to the conclusion, if there was the possibility of failure. Risk Management: Definitions In order to manage risks we have to understand what a risk is. Smith and Merrit (2002) said that three essential aspects of risk are uncertainty, loss and time, see Figure 1. Uncertainty: A project manager has to identify as many uncertainties as possible. A risk may or may not happen. This inherent uncertainty cannot be eliminated, but it can be made little clearer by clarifying the probability of occurrence of the risk, to get at better understanding of the consequences and alternatives if the risk occurs and determine the factors that influence the magnitude and likelihood of occurrence of the particular risk. This means that an uncertainty can never be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced to a level the project find tolerable. This means that even with the best plans there cannot be any guarantees that there will be no surprises [3]. Loss: A risk is always something that involves some kind of loss. If there is no loss possible, then the project is not concerned about the risk, because it cannot compromise the project [3]. Time: Associated with every risk there is a time where the risk no longer exists. Either the risk has occurred and the loss has been suffered or the potential problems that could cause the risk have been resolved and no longer pose a threat. It is important to know when this time has arrived so the risk can be removed from the agenda [3]. Among writers and in the literature there are differences in the meaning of risk management and risk analysis. Frosdick (1997) says that there are no clear views of the differences and what one writer defines as risk management another writer is calling it risk analysis. Frosdick‘s own view is that he separates them by saying that risk analysis is the sum of the processes of risk identification, estimation and evaluation and risk management is about planning, monitoring and controlling activities that are produced by the risk analysis activity. The Association for Project Management (Chapman, Simister 2004) definition of risk analysis is similar to Frosdick‘s, they have however divided the risk analysis into two stages. The first stage is called the Qualitative Analysis and it is where risks are identified and subjectively assessed. These identified risks are then analysed in terms of e.g. cost and time estimates and that is called the Quantitative Analysis. Just like for Frosdick it is then followed by the risk management process. In their definition it is the process of formulating responses, both proactive and reactive ones. Pennock Haimes (2001) said that risk management could be represented in six steps, three each for risk assessment/analysis and risk management, where each step is a question. Risk assessment/analysis What can go wrong? Identify as many risks as possible. The risks can be of any kind financial, time, resources etc. and no risk is too small to not be included [3]. What is the likelihood for the risk to occur? Try to measure how likely, or unlikely, it is for the risk to occur. Maybe some risks are dependent on each other [3]. What are the consequences? What will be the impact on the project if the risk occurs, is it a minor risk or maybe a stopping fault that endangers the whole project [3]. Risk management What can be done and what options are available? How to decrease the chance of a risk occurring, for example get more resources or have them readily available [2,3]. What are the tradeoffs in term of all costs, benefits and risks among the available options? For every risk there is somewhere a limit for how costly measures one can put in, where there is no economy in putting in more measures. Often the budget is not enough to eliminate all risks therefore one must choose which risks to put more emphasis on [2,3]. What are the impacts on current decisions on future options? [3] The official definition provided by Professor James Garven, University of Texas at Austin is from the American Risk and Insurance Association: Risk management is the systematic process of managing an organizations risk exposures to achieve its objectives in a manner consistent with public interest, human safety, environmental factors, and the law. It consists of the planning, organizing, leading, coordinating, and controlling activities undertaken with the intent of providing an efficient pre-loss plan that minimizes the adverse impact of risk on the organizations resources, earnings, and cash flows. Another definition given by Larry Krantz, Chief Executive of Euro Log Ltd in the UK, states that A risk is a combination of constraint and uncertainty. We all face constraints in our projects, and also uncertainty. So we can minimise the risk in the project either by eliminating constraints (a nice conceit) or by finding and reducing uncertainty []. The objectives of risk management/analysis The Association for Project Management (Chapman, Simister 2004) defines Risk Management/Analysis as a process designed to remove or reduce the risks that threaten the achievement of project objectives. Properly undertaken it will increase the likelihood of successful completion of a project in terms of cost, time and performance objectives. PMBOK (PMBOK Guide, 2004) describes it similarly where they say that the objectives of project management are to increase the probability and impact of positive effects and decrease the probability and impact of events adverse to project objectives. Kendrick (2003) list seven benefits on the use of risk management: Project Justification: Project risk management is undertaken primarily to improve the chances that a project will achieve its objectives. While there are never any guarantees, broader awareness of common failure modes and ideas that make projects more robust can significantly improve the odds of success. The primary goal of project risk management is either to develop a credible foundation for each project, showing that it is possible, or to demonstrate that the project is not feasible so that it can be avoided, aborted, or transformed [1]. Lower Costs and Less Chaos: Adequate risk analysis reduces both the overall cost and the frustration caused by avoidable problems [4]. The amount of rework and of unforeseen late project effort is minimised. Knowledge of the root causes of the potentially severe project problems enables project leaders and teams to work in ways that avoid these problems. Dealing with the causes of risk also minimises fire-fighting and chaos during projects, much of which is focused short-term and deals primarily with symptoms rather than the intrinsic sources of the problems [1]. Chadbourn (1999) describes it similarly when he likened the uncertainties to chaos, where a poorly designed project could be described as a room full of mousetraps, each with a ping pong ball [5]. Before you know it, someone not under your control tosses in the first ball, thus mayhem and chaos erupts [5]. In the ideal project the mousetraps are gone. In their place there is a network of dominos, where each action and reacti on could be foreseen [5]. It is within the role of organisations to try and identify these mousetraps and replace them with an orderly string of dominos [5]. Project Priority and Management Support: Support from managers and other project stakeholders and commitment from the project team are more easily won when projects are based on thorough, understandable information [11]. High-risk projects may begin with lower priority, but a thorough risk plan, displaying competence and good preparation for possible problems, can improve the project priority [11]. Whenever you are successful in raising the priority of your project, you significantly reduce project risk—by opening doors, reducing obstacles, making resources available, and shortening queues for services [11]. Project Portfolio Management: Achieving and maintaining an appropriate mix of ongoing projects for an organisation uses risk data as a key factor. The ideal project portfolio includes both lower- and higher-risk projects in proportions that are consistent with the business objectives [13]. Fine-Tuning Plans to Reduce Risk: Risk analysis uncovers weaknesses in a project plan and triggers changes, new activities, and resource shifts that improve the project. Risk analysis at the project level may also reveal needed shifts in overall project structure or basic assumptions [14]. Establishing Management Reserve: Risk analysis demonstrates the uncertainty of project outcomes and is useful in setting reserves for schedule and/or resources. Risky projects really require a window of time (or budget), instead of a single-point objective. While the project targets can be based on expectations (the most likely versions of the analysis), project commitments should be established with less aggressive goals, reflecting overall project risk. The target and committed objectives set a range for acceptable project results and provide visible recognition of project risk [18]. Project Communication and Control: Project communication is more effective when there is a solid, credible plan. Risk assessments also build awareness of project exposures for the project team, showing how painful the problems might be and when and where they might occur. This causes people to work in ways that avoid project difficulties. Risk data can also be very useful in negotiations with project sponsors. Using information about the likelihood and consequences of potential problems gives project teams more influence in defining objectives, determining budgets, obtaining staff, setting deadlines, and negotiating project changes [18]. Risk Assessment Risk Control There are two stages in the process of Project Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Control. Risk Assessment can take place at any time during the project, though the sooner the better. However, Risk Control cannot be effective without a previous Risk Assessment. Similarly, most people tend to think that having performed a Risk Assessment, they have done all that is needed. Far too many projects spend a great deal of effort on Risk Assessment and then ignore Risk control completely [19]. Risk Assessment has three elements: Identify Uncertainties In this element, the entire project plans are explored, with special focus on areas of uncertainty [20]. Analyse Risks In this element, the requirement is to specify how the areas of uncertainty will have an impact on the performance of the project, either in duration, cost or meeting the users requirements [20]. Prioritise Risks At this stage the requirement is to establish which of the Risks identified should be eliminated completely [20]. This step is only is carried out due to the potential extreme impact, which should have regular management attention, and which are sufficiently minor to avoid detailed management attention [20]. In the same way, Risk Control has three elements, as follows: Mitigate Risks According to Mobey et al (2002), risk mitigation would include taking the necessary actions that are possible in advance to reduce the effect of Risk. It is better to spend money on mitigation than to include contingency in the plan [20]. Plan for Emergencies For all those Risks which are deemed to be significant, have an emergency plan in place before it happens [19]. Measure and Control This involves tracking the effects of the risks identified and managing them to a successful conclusion [19]. Different strategies There are different strategies and methods that have different approaches toward risk management. JISC (Joint Information Systems Management) says that the focus for risk management should be on risks related to the particular project, not project management in general (http://www.jisc.ac.uk/proj_manguide15.html). The overall goal according to Kendrick (2003) for risk management in a single project is to establish a credible plan consistent with business objectives and then to minimise the range of possible outcomes. That is why risk management in a project is about identifying potential risks, analyse the ones that have the greatest likelihood of occurring, grade their different levels of impact on the project and define a plan of how to avoid the risk and if it occurs how to reduce its impact (Heldman, 2005). Smith Merrit (2001) sees risk strategy as a five step process. Figure 3 shows the flow through the five-step process and lists deliverables from each step: Step 1: Identify risks that you could encounter across all facets of the project [28]. Step 2: Analyse these risks to determine what is driving them, how great their impact might be, and how likely they are [28]. Step 3: Prioritise and map the risks so that you can choose those most important to resolve [28]. Step 4: Plan how you will take action against the risks on this short list [28]. Step 5: On a regular basis, monitor progress on your action plans, terminate action plans for risks that have been adequately resolved, and look for new risks [28]. Frosdick (1997) also mentioned Strutt‘s, definition of the concept of risk analysis that is a seven stage process. Systematic assessment (item by item question every part of the system) [13]. Identification of risks [13]. Assessment of risks (frequencies and consequences) [13]. Establish acceptable/tolerable levels of risk [13]. Evaluate the risks. Are they acceptable? Can they be reduced and at what cost? Determine whether the risks are as low as reasonably practicable [13]. Determine risk reduction measures where appropriate [13]. Risk Assessment Evaluation There are many ways and different techniques to evaluate what the risks are, what the effect they have on the project and what measures can be put in if the risks should occur [19]. Risk assessment is by most people divided into two areas, Quantitative Risk Analysis and Qualitative Risk Analysis. Quantitative In its most basic form the formula for risk quantification is: à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢Rate of occurrenceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬â€œ multiplied by the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢impact of the eventà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬â€œ = risk. Methods based on this method are often called à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢expected value analysisà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬â€œ and include models like Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALM), the Courtney formula, the Livermore Risk Analysis Methodology (LRAM) and Stochastic Dominance (Snyder, Rainer Jr., Carr 1991). The advantages of Quantitative Risk Analysis methodologies are that they are good at identifying the most critical areas that, if something happens, will have the largest impact on the project. There are also disadvantages to Quantitative Risk Analysis. When one measures the probability of damage to the project the quantitative approach tends to average the events leading up to a problem (Snyder, Rainer Jr, Carr 1991). Qualitative Qualitative methods attempts to express risks in terms of descriptive variables rather than an economic impact. These approaches are based on the assumption that certain threat or loss of data cannot be appropriately expressed in terms of dollars or pounds and that precise information is impossible to obtain. These methodologies include Scenario Analysis/Planning, Fuzzy Metrics and questionnaires (Snyder, Rainer Jr., Carr 1991). The advantages of Qualitative Risk Analysis methodologies are that they save time, effort and expense over quantitative methods. This is because assets do not need exact values in dollars or pounds nor do threats need to have exact probabilities. It is also a valuable methodology in identifying significant weaknesses in a risk management portfolio. There are disadvantages with this method as well. Qualitative Risk Analysis is inexact, the variables used (e.g. low, medium and high) must be understood by all parties involved (Snyder, Rainer Jr., Carr 1991). Risks Reduction Once risks have been identified and evaluated they have to be responded to in some way. Wideman (1992) lists seven basic responses on identified risks: Recognised but no action taken (absorbed as a matter of policy) Avoided (by taking appropriate steps) Reduced (by an alternative approach) Shared (with others, e.g., by joint venture) Transferred (to others through contract or insurance) Retained and absorbed (by prudent allowances) Handled by a combination of the above Dorfman (1997) says that all techniques to manage the risk fall into one or more of these four major categories (remembered as the 4 Ts): Tolerate (aka Retention) Treat (aka Mitigation) Terminate (aka Elimination) Transfer (aka Buying Insurance) Bliss (2005) listed these five types of similar risk responses as Dorfman and Wideman. Risk avoidance: Also known as risk removal or risk prevention, risk avoidance involves altering the original plans for the project so that particularly risky elements are removed. It could include deciding not to perform an activity that carries a high risk. Adopting such avoidance techniques may seem an obvious way to deal with all risks. However, often the areas of the project that involve high risks are also the areas of the project that potentially contain the highest worth or the best value for money. Avoiding such risks may also result in removing potentially the best bits of a resource, and an alternative strategy that retains these risks may be more appropriate [13]. Risk reduction: Risk reduction or risk mitigation involves the employment of methods that reduce the probability of a risk occurring, or reducing the severity of the impact of a risk on the outcome of the project. The loss of highly skilled staff is a considerable risk in any project and not one that can be totally avoided. Suitable risk mitigation could involve the enforcement of a notice period, comprehensive documentation allowing for replacement staff to continue with the job at hand and adequate management oversight and the use of staff development programmes to encourage staff to stay [20]. Risk transfer: Risk transfer moves the ownership of the risk to a third party normally by contract. This also moves the impact of the risk away from the project itself to this third party [20]. Risk deferral: The impact a risk can have on a project is not constant throughout the life of a project. Risk deferral entails deferring aspects of the project to a date when a risk is less likely to happen. For example managing the expectations users have about the content and delivery of a resource can be time-consuming, one way to reduce this risk is by not making a web resource available until user testing is complete [20]. Risk retention: Whilst a certain number of the risks to the project originally identified can be removed by changing the project plan or dealt with by transferring the responsibility of the risk to third parties inevitably certain risks have to be accepted as a necessary part of the project. All risks that have not been avoided or transferred are retained or accepted risks by default [20]. Previous Successful Project: St Pancras International Rail Station According to XXXXXX, before St Pancras International rail station was opened; a number of days were devoted to testing all the systems and processes, using an army of thousands of volunteer passengers. These tests were carried out much before the opening day, thus providing enough time to resolve issues that might have occurred during testing [26]. By carrying out the testing in phases much long before the opening, members of staff were able to familiarize themselves with the systems and get actual hands-on experience before the station was opened to Eurostar traffic. Dry-runs were carried out as well with the vital lessons were learnt and adjustments made before exposing paying customers to the St Pancras experience. Inevitably the result was that on the opening day, everything went without glitches on the first day of international service [26]. Previous Failed Project: Denver International Airport The Denver International Airport was scheduled to open on October 31, 1993 with all three of its concourses fully running on the BAE automated baggage handling system that. On February 28, 1995, the new airport finally opened. Its opening came sixteen months late. The automated baggage system was supposed to improve baggage handling by using a computer tracking system to direct baggage contained in unmanned carts that run on a track. BAE systems presented the City of Denver with a proposal to develop â€Å"the most complex and automated [and integrated] baggage system ever built. Original target opening date for the airport was (delayed seven times over the next three months). City of Denver invited reporters to observe the first test of the baggage system without notifying BAE. This was a public disaster! Reporters saw piles of disgorged clothes and other personal items lying beneath the Telecars tracks. Lots of mechanical and software problems plagued the automated baggage handling system. When the system was tested, bags were misloaded, sent to different routes, and fell out of automated telecarts, thus causing the system to jam. The automated baggage system still continued to unload bags even though they were jammed on the conveyor belt, because the photo eye at this location could not detect the pile of bags on the belt and hence could not signal the system to stop. Main Lessons One of the lessons BA and BAA might have been learnt from the Denver project, was that BAE actually built a prototype of the automated baggage handling system in a 50,000 sq. ft. warehouse near its manufacturing plant in Texas. But as similar to the T5 project, there was no evidence of adequate training and the results from simulation testing has been proven to be different to a real world scenario with real customers. I addition, research also shows that BAE had given an initial estimate of at least a year to test the system and get the system up and running, but United airlines and the other stakeholders pressed for a much shorter timeframe. City of Denver got the same story from technical advisers to the Franz Joseph Strauss airport in Munich (that less complicated system had taken 2 years testing and was running 24 hours a day for 6 months before the airport opened. Risks recognised early in the Project Very large scale of the project. Enormous complexity. Newness of the technology. Large number of entities to be served by the system. The high degree of technical and project definition uncertainty. Risk Identification PMBOK (PMBOK Guide, 2004) lists five tools and techniques for risk identific Risk Management of Terminal Development at Airport Risk Management of Terminal Development at Airport Dissertation Objectives Investigate the problems at the terminal 5 opening, especially with the baggage handling system despite extensive simulated testing using thousands of bags and more than two thousand volunteers in the run up to the opening of T5 Identify the necessary risk strategies to be considered for such mega-projects, the benefits of such approaches, taking into account previous failed and successful projects, and any lessons to be learnt Discuss the implementation approach adopted by BAA and the risk associated with this approach Provide formative evaluation summarising key findings and conclusion based on evidence gathered from research T5 Synopsis The terminal 5 project in addition to being a statement of intent for the future of British aviation was built with the aim of improving customer experience and to exhibit Heathrow as a world class international airport. The baggage handling system at T5 was designed to be the largest baggage handling system in Europe for a single terminal. The system consists of a main baggage sorter and a fast track system. The system was designed by an integrated team from BAA, BA and Vanderlande Industries of the Netherlands, with the aim of handling both intra-terminal and inter-terminal luggage. Its processing capacity was intended to be 70,000 bags a day. Bags are meant to undergo several processes on the way through the system, these include; automatic identification, explosives screening, fast tracking for urgent bags, sorting and automatic sorting and passenger reconciliation. The scheduled completion and opening date was March 2008, and T5 was on time and on budget. This was a remarkable achievement especially in a sector where project delays and vast overspends are commonplace (the Millennium dome, Wembley stadium and the Scottish Parliament buildings were all opened late and cost a lot more than the original estimate). However, on its first day in operation, T5s bespoke baggage system was affected by technical software problems, which led to a number of issues, such as cancelled flights, lost baggage, and substantial delays, but more importantly, BAs challenge were its people issues and integrating teams of staff. Initial reports suggest that the day one issues were less to do with technology issues and more to do with inadequate staff training, and this was not just for one group of people but at all levels. Below is a summary of its problems on the opening day: Hundreds of staff found it difficult finding the staff car park entrance Check-in staff struggled with their systems, these problems ranged from very simple tasks such as logging into the baggage system to complex tasks Security personnel who were totally ignorant of their new roles and had to be taken through new procedures in the morning in front of passengers Ground staff and crews and ground staff getting lost in the huge building Baggage handlers struggled to get a hang of the new baggage system Baggage truck drivers got lost within the terminal and needed directions to the aircraft Baggage drivers and handlers could not get luggage from the conveyors to the gates On nine occasions, inspectors from the department of transport had managed to bypass security checks during trials of the terminals new systems and that the terminals alarm system was not working properly Going through these problems therefore suggest that the entire problem was down to lack of adequate training or simply inappropriate appraisal of risk involved. This is very surprising as this was a very high profile project and taking into account that this was a simple 3 team process get baggage, take baggage to aircraft and load baggage onto aircraft. Training System Testing Prior to Opening Based on initial interviews with BAs CIO, it would suggest that the human elements were given the importance it required. BAs CIO, Paul Coby told CIO UK [in March 2007] â€Å"the IT work to support such a large-scale, new-build project was also going well. â€Å"Devices are deployed, connections are being integrated and 2007 will be testing year. The airline is moving onto the T5 systems, so they run for a year ready to operate at the new terminal when it opens in 2008†. According to XXXXX, in the run up to the opening of T5 there were a series of overnight baggage-systems tests using thousands of bags, up to 2000 volunteers and full trials of the check-in procedure for all the IT systems. According to the spokesman for Vanderlande Industries, in testing the baggage handling system, emulation models were utilized broadly to test the low-level controls software, while computer programs took the place of the baggage handling system, and which behave (almost) the same as the part they replace. The report also suggests that for the high-level controls software, the emulation model was broadened by connecting the loose individual models into a large integrated system in which the physical equipment was replaced by a number of interconnected emulation models. According to a number of the volunteers who tested the system prior to its opening commented that the demos were extremely impressive and felt the system was ready in advance of its opening. T5 System Simulation Prior to Opening According to the spokesman for Vanderlande Industries, low-level emulation models were utilized in place of the physical transport equipment in each of the conveyor lines. The low and high level models that were developed produced the same electrical outputs in response to the same electrical inputs as their corresponding physical equivalent (motors, photo-electric cells, barcode scanners, etc), which in the view of both the software developers and management of BA, proof of extensive system testing. System interaction was facilitated with the use of control panels, and with the right frequency, set of bags or multiple bags were generated. During the testing, the conveyor motors were stopped and started utilizing different scenarios in order to generate as much errors as possible with the hope of fixing them. The spokesman also stated that the transport time between two photocells in emulation was equal to the actual time using the real equipment. The same measurement also applied to the total transport time. In addition, during testing the T5 project, over 90 individual low-level emulation models were created as individual models were integrated into 5 different configurations. A separate team spent 4800 hours on building and testing these emulation models. Questions: Training Testing But the first set of questions now has to be asked: how adequate was the tests and training were carried out in relation to T5s baggage systems in advance of the opening? What were the results? What were the problems revealed? and what steps were taken to resolve the problems revealed? Were the tests re-run and, if so, what was the result? Was the right implementation strategy adopted? Or would it not have been better to open Terminal 5 on a phased basis, to make sure that all its systems were working before going fully operational? The second set of questions to be asked would be: knowing that extensive simulation testing was carried out on the baggage system successfully; doesnt that then suggest that carrying out simulated testing without the real customers is inadequate? With regards to the people issues, what sort of dry runs were carried out? If they were indeed adequate, why were the opening day hiccups not identified? Where there extra staff or volunteers in anticipation of potential glitches? If yes were these trained adequately? For every eventuality or possible scenario, what were the contingency plans? In spite of the extensive testing carried out on the baggage system and the confidence which this would have placed on top management, from the experience on the opening day, we can conclude that in reality, the prospects of operating an airport terminal of such magnitude and scale would require more than simulated testing as the operations are virtually impossible to fully replicate. This then suggests that the risk management utilized by the BA was not robust to take the people issues into account. Good risk management might have come to the conclusion, if there was the possibility of failure. Risk Management: Definitions In order to manage risks we have to understand what a risk is. Smith and Merrit (2002) said that three essential aspects of risk are uncertainty, loss and time, see Figure 1. Uncertainty: A project manager has to identify as many uncertainties as possible. A risk may or may not happen. This inherent uncertainty cannot be eliminated, but it can be made little clearer by clarifying the probability of occurrence of the risk, to get at better understanding of the consequences and alternatives if the risk occurs and determine the factors that influence the magnitude and likelihood of occurrence of the particular risk. This means that an uncertainty can never be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced to a level the project find tolerable. This means that even with the best plans there cannot be any guarantees that there will be no surprises [3]. Loss: A risk is always something that involves some kind of loss. If there is no loss possible, then the project is not concerned about the risk, because it cannot compromise the project [3]. Time: Associated with every risk there is a time where the risk no longer exists. Either the risk has occurred and the loss has been suffered or the potential problems that could cause the risk have been resolved and no longer pose a threat. It is important to know when this time has arrived so the risk can be removed from the agenda [3]. Among writers and in the literature there are differences in the meaning of risk management and risk analysis. Frosdick (1997) says that there are no clear views of the differences and what one writer defines as risk management another writer is calling it risk analysis. Frosdick‘s own view is that he separates them by saying that risk analysis is the sum of the processes of risk identification, estimation and evaluation and risk management is about planning, monitoring and controlling activities that are produced by the risk analysis activity. The Association for Project Management (Chapman, Simister 2004) definition of risk analysis is similar to Frosdick‘s, they have however divided the risk analysis into two stages. The first stage is called the Qualitative Analysis and it is where risks are identified and subjectively assessed. These identified risks are then analysed in terms of e.g. cost and time estimates and that is called the Quantitative Analysis. Just like for Frosdick it is then followed by the risk management process. In their definition it is the process of formulating responses, both proactive and reactive ones. Pennock Haimes (2001) said that risk management could be represented in six steps, three each for risk assessment/analysis and risk management, where each step is a question. Risk assessment/analysis What can go wrong? Identify as many risks as possible. The risks can be of any kind financial, time, resources etc. and no risk is too small to not be included [3]. What is the likelihood for the risk to occur? Try to measure how likely, or unlikely, it is for the risk to occur. Maybe some risks are dependent on each other [3]. What are the consequences? What will be the impact on the project if the risk occurs, is it a minor risk or maybe a stopping fault that endangers the whole project [3]. Risk management What can be done and what options are available? How to decrease the chance of a risk occurring, for example get more resources or have them readily available [2,3]. What are the tradeoffs in term of all costs, benefits and risks among the available options? For every risk there is somewhere a limit for how costly measures one can put in, where there is no economy in putting in more measures. Often the budget is not enough to eliminate all risks therefore one must choose which risks to put more emphasis on [2,3]. What are the impacts on current decisions on future options? [3] The official definition provided by Professor James Garven, University of Texas at Austin is from the American Risk and Insurance Association: Risk management is the systematic process of managing an organizations risk exposures to achieve its objectives in a manner consistent with public interest, human safety, environmental factors, and the law. It consists of the planning, organizing, leading, coordinating, and controlling activities undertaken with the intent of providing an efficient pre-loss plan that minimizes the adverse impact of risk on the organizations resources, earnings, and cash flows. Another definition given by Larry Krantz, Chief Executive of Euro Log Ltd in the UK, states that A risk is a combination of constraint and uncertainty. We all face constraints in our projects, and also uncertainty. So we can minimise the risk in the project either by eliminating constraints (a nice conceit) or by finding and reducing uncertainty []. The objectives of risk management/analysis The Association for Project Management (Chapman, Simister 2004) defines Risk Management/Analysis as a process designed to remove or reduce the risks that threaten the achievement of project objectives. Properly undertaken it will increase the likelihood of successful completion of a project in terms of cost, time and performance objectives. PMBOK (PMBOK Guide, 2004) describes it similarly where they say that the objectives of project management are to increase the probability and impact of positive effects and decrease the probability and impact of events adverse to project objectives. Kendrick (2003) list seven benefits on the use of risk management: Project Justification: Project risk management is undertaken primarily to improve the chances that a project will achieve its objectives. While there are never any guarantees, broader awareness of common failure modes and ideas that make projects more robust can significantly improve the odds of success. The primary goal of project risk management is either to develop a credible foundation for each project, showing that it is possible, or to demonstrate that the project is not feasible so that it can be avoided, aborted, or transformed [1]. Lower Costs and Less Chaos: Adequate risk analysis reduces both the overall cost and the frustration caused by avoidable problems [4]. The amount of rework and of unforeseen late project effort is minimised. Knowledge of the root causes of the potentially severe project problems enables project leaders and teams to work in ways that avoid these problems. Dealing with the causes of risk also minimises fire-fighting and chaos during projects, much of which is focused short-term and deals primarily with symptoms rather than the intrinsic sources of the problems [1]. Chadbourn (1999) describes it similarly when he likened the uncertainties to chaos, where a poorly designed project could be described as a room full of mousetraps, each with a ping pong ball [5]. Before you know it, someone not under your control tosses in the first ball, thus mayhem and chaos erupts [5]. In the ideal project the mousetraps are gone. In their place there is a network of dominos, where each action and reacti on could be foreseen [5]. It is within the role of organisations to try and identify these mousetraps and replace them with an orderly string of dominos [5]. Project Priority and Management Support: Support from managers and other project stakeholders and commitment from the project team are more easily won when projects are based on thorough, understandable information [11]. High-risk projects may begin with lower priority, but a thorough risk plan, displaying competence and good preparation for possible problems, can improve the project priority [11]. Whenever you are successful in raising the priority of your project, you significantly reduce project risk—by opening doors, reducing obstacles, making resources available, and shortening queues for services [11]. Project Portfolio Management: Achieving and maintaining an appropriate mix of ongoing projects for an organisation uses risk data as a key factor. The ideal project portfolio includes both lower- and higher-risk projects in proportions that are consistent with the business objectives [13]. Fine-Tuning Plans to Reduce Risk: Risk analysis uncovers weaknesses in a project plan and triggers changes, new activities, and resource shifts that improve the project. Risk analysis at the project level may also reveal needed shifts in overall project structure or basic assumptions [14]. Establishing Management Reserve: Risk analysis demonstrates the uncertainty of project outcomes and is useful in setting reserves for schedule and/or resources. Risky projects really require a window of time (or budget), instead of a single-point objective. While the project targets can be based on expectations (the most likely versions of the analysis), project commitments should be established with less aggressive goals, reflecting overall project risk. The target and committed objectives set a range for acceptable project results and provide visible recognition of project risk [18]. Project Communication and Control: Project communication is more effective when there is a solid, credible plan. Risk assessments also build awareness of project exposures for the project team, showing how painful the problems might be and when and where they might occur. This causes people to work in ways that avoid project difficulties. Risk data can also be very useful in negotiations with project sponsors. Using information about the likelihood and consequences of potential problems gives project teams more influence in defining objectives, determining budgets, obtaining staff, setting deadlines, and negotiating project changes [18]. Risk Assessment Risk Control There are two stages in the process of Project Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Control. Risk Assessment can take place at any time during the project, though the sooner the better. However, Risk Control cannot be effective without a previous Risk Assessment. Similarly, most people tend to think that having performed a Risk Assessment, they have done all that is needed. Far too many projects spend a great deal of effort on Risk Assessment and then ignore Risk control completely [19]. Risk Assessment has three elements: Identify Uncertainties In this element, the entire project plans are explored, with special focus on areas of uncertainty [20]. Analyse Risks In this element, the requirement is to specify how the areas of uncertainty will have an impact on the performance of the project, either in duration, cost or meeting the users requirements [20]. Prioritise Risks At this stage the requirement is to establish which of the Risks identified should be eliminated completely [20]. This step is only is carried out due to the potential extreme impact, which should have regular management attention, and which are sufficiently minor to avoid detailed management attention [20]. In the same way, Risk Control has three elements, as follows: Mitigate Risks According to Mobey et al (2002), risk mitigation would include taking the necessary actions that are possible in advance to reduce the effect of Risk. It is better to spend money on mitigation than to include contingency in the plan [20]. Plan for Emergencies For all those Risks which are deemed to be significant, have an emergency plan in place before it happens [19]. Measure and Control This involves tracking the effects of the risks identified and managing them to a successful conclusion [19]. Different strategies There are different strategies and methods that have different approaches toward risk management. JISC (Joint Information Systems Management) says that the focus for risk management should be on risks related to the particular project, not project management in general (http://www.jisc.ac.uk/proj_manguide15.html). The overall goal according to Kendrick (2003) for risk management in a single project is to establish a credible plan consistent with business objectives and then to minimise the range of possible outcomes. That is why risk management in a project is about identifying potential risks, analyse the ones that have the greatest likelihood of occurring, grade their different levels of impact on the project and define a plan of how to avoid the risk and if it occurs how to reduce its impact (Heldman, 2005). Smith Merrit (2001) sees risk strategy as a five step process. Figure 3 shows the flow through the five-step process and lists deliverables from each step: Step 1: Identify risks that you could encounter across all facets of the project [28]. Step 2: Analyse these risks to determine what is driving them, how great their impact might be, and how likely they are [28]. Step 3: Prioritise and map the risks so that you can choose those most important to resolve [28]. Step 4: Plan how you will take action against the risks on this short list [28]. Step 5: On a regular basis, monitor progress on your action plans, terminate action plans for risks that have been adequately resolved, and look for new risks [28]. Frosdick (1997) also mentioned Strutt‘s, definition of the concept of risk analysis that is a seven stage process. Systematic assessment (item by item question every part of the system) [13]. Identification of risks [13]. Assessment of risks (frequencies and consequences) [13]. Establish acceptable/tolerable levels of risk [13]. Evaluate the risks. Are they acceptable? Can they be reduced and at what cost? Determine whether the risks are as low as reasonably practicable [13]. Determine risk reduction measures where appropriate [13]. Risk Assessment Evaluation There are many ways and different techniques to evaluate what the risks are, what the effect they have on the project and what measures can be put in if the risks should occur [19]. Risk assessment is by most people divided into two areas, Quantitative Risk Analysis and Qualitative Risk Analysis. Quantitative In its most basic form the formula for risk quantification is: à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢Rate of occurrenceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬â€œ multiplied by the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢impact of the eventà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬â€œ = risk. Methods based on this method are often called à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢expected value analysisà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬â€œ and include models like Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALM), the Courtney formula, the Livermore Risk Analysis Methodology (LRAM) and Stochastic Dominance (Snyder, Rainer Jr., Carr 1991). The advantages of Quantitative Risk Analysis methodologies are that they are good at identifying the most critical areas that, if something happens, will have the largest impact on the project. There are also disadvantages to Quantitative Risk Analysis. When one measures the probability of damage to the project the quantitative approach tends to average the events leading up to a problem (Snyder, Rainer Jr, Carr 1991). Qualitative Qualitative methods attempts to express risks in terms of descriptive variables rather than an economic impact. These approaches are based on the assumption that certain threat or loss of data cannot be appropriately expressed in terms of dollars or pounds and that precise information is impossible to obtain. These methodologies include Scenario Analysis/Planning, Fuzzy Metrics and questionnaires (Snyder, Rainer Jr., Carr 1991). The advantages of Qualitative Risk Analysis methodologies are that they save time, effort and expense over quantitative methods. This is because assets do not need exact values in dollars or pounds nor do threats need to have exact probabilities. It is also a valuable methodology in identifying significant weaknesses in a risk management portfolio. There are disadvantages with this method as well. Qualitative Risk Analysis is inexact, the variables used (e.g. low, medium and high) must be understood by all parties involved (Snyder, Rainer Jr., Carr 1991). Risks Reduction Once risks have been identified and evaluated they have to be responded to in some way. Wideman (1992) lists seven basic responses on identified risks: Recognised but no action taken (absorbed as a matter of policy) Avoided (by taking appropriate steps) Reduced (by an alternative approach) Shared (with others, e.g., by joint venture) Transferred (to others through contract or insurance) Retained and absorbed (by prudent allowances) Handled by a combination of the above Dorfman (1997) says that all techniques to manage the risk fall into one or more of these four major categories (remembered as the 4 Ts): Tolerate (aka Retention) Treat (aka Mitigation) Terminate (aka Elimination) Transfer (aka Buying Insurance) Bliss (2005) listed these five types of similar risk responses as Dorfman and Wideman. Risk avoidance: Also known as risk removal or risk prevention, risk avoidance involves altering the original plans for the project so that particularly risky elements are removed. It could include deciding not to perform an activity that carries a high risk. Adopting such avoidance techniques may seem an obvious way to deal with all risks. However, often the areas of the project that involve high risks are also the areas of the project that potentially contain the highest worth or the best value for money. Avoiding such risks may also result in removing potentially the best bits of a resource, and an alternative strategy that retains these risks may be more appropriate [13]. Risk reduction: Risk reduction or risk mitigation involves the employment of methods that reduce the probability of a risk occurring, or reducing the severity of the impact of a risk on the outcome of the project. The loss of highly skilled staff is a considerable risk in any project and not one that can be totally avoided. Suitable risk mitigation could involve the enforcement of a notice period, comprehensive documentation allowing for replacement staff to continue with the job at hand and adequate management oversight and the use of staff development programmes to encourage staff to stay [20]. Risk transfer: Risk transfer moves the ownership of the risk to a third party normally by contract. This also moves the impact of the risk away from the project itself to this third party [20]. Risk deferral: The impact a risk can have on a project is not constant throughout the life of a project. Risk deferral entails deferring aspects of the project to a date when a risk is less likely to happen. For example managing the expectations users have about the content and delivery of a resource can be time-consuming, one way to reduce this risk is by not making a web resource available until user testing is complete [20]. Risk retention: Whilst a certain number of the risks to the project originally identified can be removed by changing the project plan or dealt with by transferring the responsibility of the risk to third parties inevitably certain risks have to be accepted as a necessary part of the project. All risks that have not been avoided or transferred are retained or accepted risks by default [20]. Previous Successful Project: St Pancras International Rail Station According to XXXXXX, before St Pancras International rail station was opened; a number of days were devoted to testing all the systems and processes, using an army of thousands of volunteer passengers. These tests were carried out much before the opening day, thus providing enough time to resolve issues that might have occurred during testing [26]. By carrying out the testing in phases much long before the opening, members of staff were able to familiarize themselves with the systems and get actual hands-on experience before the station was opened to Eurostar traffic. Dry-runs were carried out as well with the vital lessons were learnt and adjustments made before exposing paying customers to the St Pancras experience. Inevitably the result was that on the opening day, everything went without glitches on the first day of international service [26]. Previous Failed Project: Denver International Airport The Denver International Airport was scheduled to open on October 31, 1993 with all three of its concourses fully running on the BAE automated baggage handling system that. On February 28, 1995, the new airport finally opened. Its opening came sixteen months late. The automated baggage system was supposed to improve baggage handling by using a computer tracking system to direct baggage contained in unmanned carts that run on a track. BAE systems presented the City of Denver with a proposal to develop â€Å"the most complex and automated [and integrated] baggage system ever built. Original target opening date for the airport was (delayed seven times over the next three months). City of Denver invited reporters to observe the first test of the baggage system without notifying BAE. This was a public disaster! Reporters saw piles of disgorged clothes and other personal items lying beneath the Telecars tracks. Lots of mechanical and software problems plagued the automated baggage handling system. When the system was tested, bags were misloaded, sent to different routes, and fell out of automated telecarts, thus causing the system to jam. The automated baggage system still continued to unload bags even though they were jammed on the conveyor belt, because the photo eye at this location could not detect the pile of bags on the belt and hence could not signal the system to stop. Main Lessons One of the lessons BA and BAA might have been learnt from the Denver project, was that BAE actually built a prototype of the automated baggage handling system in a 50,000 sq. ft. warehouse near its manufacturing plant in Texas. But as similar to the T5 project, there was no evidence of adequate training and the results from simulation testing has been proven to be different to a real world scenario with real customers. I addition, research also shows that BAE had given an initial estimate of at least a year to test the system and get the system up and running, but United airlines and the other stakeholders pressed for a much shorter timeframe. City of Denver got the same story from technical advisers to the Franz Joseph Strauss airport in Munich (that less complicated system had taken 2 years testing and was running 24 hours a day for 6 months before the airport opened. Risks recognised early in the Project Very large scale of the project. Enormous complexity. Newness of the technology. Large number of entities to be served by the system. The high degree of technical and project definition uncertainty. Risk Identification PMBOK (PMBOK Guide, 2004) lists five tools and techniques for risk identific